3 million cars is only enough to "buy tickets", why would Changan dare to talk about being in the top 10 in the world?

Standing at the center of the booth in the hustle and bustle of the 2026 Beijing Auto Show, the strongest feeling is not the stacking of new cars, but a deep "evolutionary anxiety" and "order reconstruction". The current Chinese automobile market is in an extremely torn cycle: on the one hand, it is a record of going to sea, and on the other hand, the domestic market is almost tragically priced; on the other hand, the scale of this Beijing auto show is 70% larger than two years ago, and there are more than 200 new car launches. On the other hand, in reality, the new car iteration is too fast, resulting in the increase of revenue and profit of car companies. In this context, the media communication meeting held by Changan Automobile during the auto show not only annotated its own "1445" strategy, but also reviewed and predicted the "life and death" of the entire industry in the next five years. If in the past few years, the major car companies are still debating "pure electricity or extended range", then the 2026 Beijing Auto Show has revealed a cruel truth to us: the power form is no longer the only variable that determines victory or defeat, and "efficiency at scale" and "globalization of the entire industry chain" are the tickets for car companies to enter the world's first echelon. In this communication meeting between Avita and Deep Blue, nothing attracted the industry's attention more than the deployment of China Changan Automobile Group to its two major new energy brands, Avita and Deep Blue, to open a comprehensive strategic synergy. In 2025, Changan Automobile's annual sales of 2.913 million vehicles hit a new high of nearly nine years, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Standing at this new starting point of "quasi 3 million vehicles", Zhao Fei, general manager of China Changan Automobile, gave a set of figures that all practitioners pondered on the spot: by 2030, the top 15-20 car companies in the world will occupy 80% of the market share. This means that the annual sales volume of 3 million vehicles is only the threshold of "living", 5 million vehicles are "living well", and to enter the global Top 10, it is necessary to cross the mark of 8 million to 10 million vehicles. This is the underlying logic of Avita's integration with Deep Blue. In the asset-heavy, long-cycle industry of the automobile, solitary heroism is outdated. Changan's strategy is very pragmatic and advanced: "front-end independence, middle- and back-end synergy". The front-end independence is to hold the "soul" of the brand. Avita continues to adhere to the high-end tone of "original, emotional and new luxury", and its concept car XPECTRA demonstrates not only the design, but also the "brand premium ability" necessary for luxury brands. Deep blue continues to cultivate "youth, science and technology, sports" as the core pillar of high-quality development. Avita XPECTRA's mid- and back-end synergy is to preserve "life". As Zhao Fei put it bluntly, in the end, the winning magic weapon must be "efficiency". Chang 'an has reached the stage of annual sales of 3 million vehicles. How to make good use of the resources of these 3 million vehicles is the key to winning and losing. The simple business logic is that if an electric drive product and an intelligent driving module can be common among multiple brands such as Avita, Deep Blue, and Qiyuan, and combined with the global sales volume of overseas regions, its advantages in R&D amortization, procurement costs, quality control, and delivery speed will never be achieved by those start-up brands that sell thousands or tens of thousands of vehicles in a month. This integration and merger is not a simple "brand merger", but a deep "mid-taiwan transformation". By integrating resources, Changan is trying to build a high-end brand group with an annual sales volume of more than 1.5 million vehicles. This approach is essentially to dilute the research and development costs of intelligence and globalization at a sky-high price with scale. It is reported that Changan Automobile plans to reduce the original 63 products to 36, focusing on creating a globally competitive core product, and the products of Avita and Dark Blue Automobile are also likely to be affected. In response to the integration changes that have attracted attention from the outside world, Avita President Chen Zhuo reiterated that his plans to go to Hong Kong for listing remain unchanged. Zhu Huarong also gave reassurance: the interests of the two major brand employees, shareholders and other related parties remain unchanged, or they can be better protected, and the integration is in the initial planning stage. Subsequently, it will be promoted according to the plan under the premise of taking into account the concerns of all parties. If we only look at the sales data for the first quarter of 2026, some people may be worried about the prospects of Changan. Judging from the amount of danger on the terminal, 78,400 vehicles in January, 65,100 vehicles in February, and 85,000 vehicles in March. Although it has steadily risen, the pressure to start is real. Zhao Fei did not shy away from these at the communication meeting. He believes that the market turbulence caused by the shift from "full exemption" to "half-imposed" of the domestic new energy purchase tax, the policy containment of the Mexican import tariff soaring from 20% to 50%, and the geopolitical impact on the global supply chain such as the US-Iran war have filled the beginning of 2026 with variables. But for "veteran giants" like Changan, short-term fluctuations are more like breathing adjustments in long-distance running. Chairman Zhu Huarong's "two-step" strategy has been set: the first step is to achieve 5 million sales by 2030 and enter the global top 10; the second step is to stand firm in the global top 10 by 2035, and the brand is world-class. To achieve this goal, a CAGR of 11% to 12% is required. This requires not only ambitious ambitions, but also a sophisticated operational plan. The answer given by Changan is based on the comprehensive transition of the "1445" strategy. From the product matrix, since April, more than ten new and modified models of Chang 'an have been launched centrally. Through the completion matrix of new vehicles such as Q06 and A05L, Q05's shortage of supply (20,000 undelivered orders) has proved the recognition of the market. Avita is targeting the high-end market of more than 200,000 yuan, sprinting to sell 20,000 units a month. Deep Blue aims to sell 480,000 units worldwide, and strengthens the technology label through the in-depth evolution of "intelligent driving" and "three electricity". When everyone shouted "all-electric", the words of Yang Dayong, executive vice president of Changan Automobile, were extremely realistic. He predicts that by 2030, HEV (hybrid) will account for more than 60% of fuel vehicles in China. In his view, China's new energy has developed rapidly, but looking at the world, 70 million users still choose fuel vehicles every year, and many overseas regions cannot keep up with the charging conditions. From the perspective of the domestic market, more than half of fuel vehicle users do not want to save energy, but are inconvenient to charge, have no fixed parking space, or do not want to change their car habits. This is the true market logic of HEVs. Changan's judgment is clear: not "oil and electricity dispute", but "what users need, we do". Yang Dayong believes that the future must be a long-term coexistence of multiple dynamics, and HEV will become one of the mainstream choices. In addition, there is a high probability that HEV sales in overseas markets will be higher than in domestic markets. Haina Baichuan 2.0: From "selling cars to the sea" to "taking root in the industry" According to statistics, Changan Automobile's overseas sales will reach 637,000 in 2025. Relative to Changan's ambitions, this is just the beginning. In order to support the "Haina Baichuan Plan 2.0", Chang 'an sent Ye Pei and Peng Tao, two heavyweight executive vice presidents, to take the lead personally. Ye Pei's definition of "going out to sea 2.0" is very sharp: "1.0 era is the eyes to see out and sell products; and 2.0 era is the whole industry chain to go out to sea, the whole system to go out to sea." 1.0 is "trade thinking", more is to sell domestic surplus production capacity, excellent products to foreign countries to earn foreign exchange. But this model is vulnerable to tariff barriers, geopolitics, and supply chain stability. Changes in Mexican and Brazilian policies have sounded alarm bells for all car companies. 2.0 is "localization thinking": Changan is now doing "research, production, supply, sales, transportation" fully closed-loop globalization. With the launch of the Rayong plant in Thailand and the establishment of a R&D and manufacturing base in Brazil, Changan is building a global supply layout of "1 + N" - a main base in each region, radiating the SKD/DKD model around it. Changan's globalization strategy is also very representative. Rather than making a “special supply vehicle” for a single market, develop a “Global Native + Regional Customization” platform. This means that at the beginning of the project, a car takes into account the needs of NCAP in Europe, the right-hand rudder in Southeast Asia, and the special oil environment in Central and South America. The "3.0 era" vision mentioned by Ye Pei - forming long-term ecological interactions with customers is actually reshaping the "reputation" of Chinese brands in overseas markets. "No spare parts, no sales; no service, no overseas" is not only a slogan, but also the cornerstone of Changan's "long-termism" in overseas markets. In the next five years, Changan will invest hundreds of billions of strategic resources to support the doubling of overseas sales of independent brands, reaching 1.5 million vehicles and striving for 1.8 million vehicles, accounting for 35% to 40% of sales. By 2030, 800,000 overseas production capacity will be built. Conclusion: Looking for certainty in uncertainty What is the core competitiveness of car companies at this unpredictable time point in 2026? The answer given by Changan is: strategic determination and efficiency revolution. Instead of blindly pursuing the so-called technical gimmicks, we will focus our resources on the middle office that can produce scale effects; instead of participating in meaningless parameter inner scrolls, we will make security the deepest label of the brand; instead of making short-term fast money, we will invest hundreds of billions of resources for global layout. As Zhao Fei quoted, "Chaotic clouds flying across are still calm". In this era when the old order is failing and the new narrative is not yet complete, having a clear self-awareness and tight system logic may be the only way to cross the cycle. Changan is not only running hard, but more importantly, it sees the direction of the wind in the acceleration.