History Made. By the first half of 2026, the percentage of global new vehicle sales that are pure gasoline vehicles had dropped to 49%. This marks the first time since the 1920s, when cars began to become widespread, that gasoline cars have dropped below 50% market share. In 2021, this number was still at 73%, dropping by 24 points in just five years. So who took the half of the market that petrol cars lost? (More in-depth videos are available on Autohome's video platform.) The most common answer is that EVs are simply selling better. But that only half-answers it. First, here's the overall market picture: According to data from the International Energy Agency, the global car market contracted by about 5% this year. The market is contracting, but the drop in gasoline cars is twice that of the broader market. Pure petrol cars sold 20.25 million units globally in the first half, down 10% year-on-year. The biggest drop was in China, which saw a year-over-year decline of 26%; Europe came in second, with a 13% drop. Flip it around and look at EVs: 6.87 million pure electric cars were sold globally in the first half, up 12% year-on-year, taking a 17% share. The market is contracting, it's also expanding, and it's this scissors gap that's at the core of the problem. Where does that growth momentum come from? There's a counterintuitive detail here. Many believed that China and North America were the engines of electric vehicle growth, but the first half of this year was exactly the opposite. Chinese electric vehicle sales actually dropped by 3% due to subsidy withdrawal; it was even steeper in North America, dropping by 15%. The U.S. government significantly scaled back its incentives for electric vehicles. What really exploded was “elsewhere.” European EV sales jumped 32% to 1.81 million units, overtaking petrol cars for the first time in a half-year period; in Southeast Asia, sales jumped by 81%; in Oceania, sales doubled, with Australia seeing a pure electric vehicle penetration rate of 22% in July, up from just 8.4% in January, a nearly threefold increase in just a few months. Many industry insiders believe that what has driven this wave of growth is not technological breakthroughs or increased subsidies, but higher oil prices. Previously, the biggest criticism of electric vehicles was around range, charging, and reliability; but as products have matured over the past few years, consumers are finding that for daily commuting, why can't I choose a cheaper, smarter option? A Mobility Global analyst said, "Previously, the slow adoption of electric vehicles was due to the cessation of subsidies, but as fuel prices have risen, the advantage of lower operating costs has been re-recognized, driving sales growth again." Who is behind the push that has driven petrol cars below 50%? The answer isn't surprising. Chairman Wan Gang of the World New Energy Vehicle Conference pointed out that global cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 94 million vehicles, with China contributing 64 million vehicles, accounting for over 68%. This number speaks for itself. But more intriguing is another set of data. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic car sales fell by 21% year-over-year to less than 10 million vehicles in the first half of the year, which doesn't look good on the surface. Over the same period exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% year-over-year, with June exports breaking the one million mark for the first time, surpassing the entire 2020 year in just one month. That said, the domestic market is contracting while the overseas market is booming. At this pace, Chinese auto exports could surpass 10 million vehicles by 2026. By then, a third of the industry's sales will be completed overseas. None of the top five companies in terms of net profit have overseas sales below a third. Chery generates 69.1% of its sales overseas, BYD 43.7%, SAIC 35.9% and Geely 33.3%. And the majority of these exported vehicles are electric. Electric vehicle penetration rates are up 32% in Europe and 81% in Southeast Asia, with Chinese vehicles behind the trend. Chinese automakers are boosting global electric vehicle penetration through their own export scale. Why is there this scale? The fundamental reason lies in the supply chain. Many people believe that the core of car manufacturing lies in the body chassis, which is not the case. The true moat in the automotive industry lies in its components. For decades, this track was almost monopolized by European, American, and Japanese enterprises, with Chinese suppliers struggling to make it into the front row. But the release of the Top 100 Global Automotive Supply Chain in 2026 quietly rewrote this landscape. Once dominant in the global automotive landscape, Europe, the US, Japan, and Korea are now collectively losing momentum; China has surged to 20 companies on the list, with its revenue share rising from 14% to 17.2%, surpassing that of the US and climbing to third place globally. The most notable example is CATL, which jumped from 7th place to 3rd, becoming the first Chinese supply chain company to enter the global top three. In the past decade, CATL has risen to the top of global battery enterprises with 26,574 patents, overtaking LG Energy Solutions, which had long held the top spot. It has been nearly three times that of its nearest rival in terms of application volume over the past three years. Accumulated technical prowess, scale advantages, and a cohesive industrial chain – when these three things come together, they form a systemic advantage for the entire Chinese new energy industry, rather than just one company. And with the 49% figure coming out, many people's first reaction was that the era of gasoline vehicles is about to end. But don't rush to put a final label on it. Here's a clarification needed on a statistical perspective issue. A drop below 50% refers to pure gasoline vehicles, excluding hybrid models. Hybrid sales surpassed pure electric vehicles this year, with diesel vehicles not included in this figure. While discussing HEVs in China, they are typically placed outside of the realm of non-new energy vehicles. Therefore, only electric vehicles that make up 17% are completely oil-free. That means that about 83% of new vehicles sold this year still come equipped with engines. Another dimension that is often overlooked is that penetration is an incremental metric, while the vehicles already on the road are the stock reality. More and more new cars sold are electric vehicles, but the cars on the road are mostly gasoline cars. Infrastructure, user habits and the replacement cycle of the existing parc are not things that can be flipped overnight. But none of this prevents us from acknowledging one thing: the ceiling is already clear. On the technology side, Stella Li, Executive Vice President of BYD, recently said: "In China, with fast-charging technology becoming widespread, petrol cars have no future." She also revealed that BYD will launch a solid-state battery model by 2027. Once solid-state batteries are truly put into mass production, the last fig leaves of range anxiety and safety concerns will be pulled away. Market-wise, the driving force behind consumers purchasing electric vehicles is no longer policy incentives but a real comparison of running costs. So, the answer is: The era of gasoline cars is not over, but its growth logic has been broken. Is that just a matter of time? (Text by Autohome Peng Fei)